Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd12ac503f75032b2fba581865fa8dc6d6e0f281e50e21b537ddbe3981f0a697e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f6f…ce33backed No | 75c | 798.29$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 677.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 34c | 530.07$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.52 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 361.25$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 336.8$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 27c | 289.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 57c | 262.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 5c | 201.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 201$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 24c | 196.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 31c | 194.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.54 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 179.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 163.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 158.02$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 63c | 157.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 150.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 76c | 140.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 135.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 59c | 132$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 36c | 103.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…147cbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 99.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 51c | 98.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 94.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 88.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 26c | 87.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 16c | 86.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 29c | 85.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 80.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 32c | 74.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 63.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 49c | 56.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 47c | 54.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 47.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 37c | 46.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 55c | 32.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 30.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 27.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 26.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 49c | 23.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 73c | 23.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 64c | 23.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 75c | 17.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.