NFL · resolved market
Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1899896f1ae755f3b956eb22cac3b2c247dbb3b86f4ae57bdc893169503540d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 56c | 20,456$11,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,035.84 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Over | 45c | 18,200$8,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,189 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 44c | 6,200$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,728 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 44c | 3,885$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.3 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 3,145$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.19 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Over | 44c | 1,367$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Over | 48c | 1,101$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 52c | 1,069$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.96 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 44c | 719.66$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.65 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 44c | 461.55$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.08 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 44c | 276.48$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.65 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…ae8bbacked Over | 47c | 174.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c59…4d2ebacked Over | 47c | 65.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5this page
- Rams vs. JaguarsRams won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5Under won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Under won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Rams (-2.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.