NFL · resolved market
Spread: Rams (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dae29285f10743a93ba10f1b5e515e4a2f65c5a1696b58fe45d1b39e418cc42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ramsof Rams, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Jaguars | 45c | 5,500$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.99 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jaguars | 43c | 2,188$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.87 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Jaguars | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Rams | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…6feebacked Rams | 56c | 1,787$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.11 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Rams | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.39 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Jaguars | 44c | 1,727$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.67 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Rams | 55c | 1,657$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.65 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rams | 55c | 900$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ce…dc3cbacked Jaguars | 45c | 900$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc7…4fafbacked Rams | 55c | 900$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Rams | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…6b7cbacked Rams | 55c | 680$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a9…6324backed Jaguars | 45c | 680$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Rams | 55c | 507.99$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.6 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Rams | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Rams | 55c | 381.82$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed Rams | 55c | 366.67$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Jaguars | 45c | 366.67$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…c2eabacked Rams | 56c | 332.54$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.54 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jaguars | 46c | 329.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Rams | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Rams | 55c | 232.18$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.48 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Rams | 56c | 228$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Rams | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Jaguars | 44c | 206.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Rams | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Rams | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rams | 55c | 148$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Jaguars | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Jaguars | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jaguars | 46c | 40.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Rams | 55c | 36.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166e…8f22backed Rams | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Rams | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Jaguars | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Rams | 55c | 21.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rams (-2.5)this page
- Rams vs. JaguarsRams won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5Under won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Under won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Under won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.