NFL · resolved market
Spread: Rams (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9e53e3d00705ee51844513627cf743bd9c84da799b3e46f2e976e31bc0ac4f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ramsof Rams, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $305,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $355,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fce…2229backed Jaguars | 52c | 132,999$68,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,919.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Rams | 47c | 63,885$30,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,756.98 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Rams | 46c | 59,425$27,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,089.47 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Jaguars | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,599.99 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Rams | 52c | 16,373$8,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,859.04 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Jaguars | 55c | 15,517$8,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,539.82 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Rams | 47c | 15,000$7,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,950 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Rams | 46c | 13,155$6,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,103.64 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Rams | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…767dbacked Rams | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…43c8backed Jaguars | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Rams | 60c | 9,999$5,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,999.51 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Rams | 45c | 9,577$4,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,267.27 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Rams | 44c | 6,818$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,818.18 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Rams | 44c | 5,231$2,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,926.56 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jaguars | 53c | 5,000$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Rams | 45c | 3,484$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.68 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7af…9796backed Rams | 46c | 2,887$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8d…f3acbacked Jaguars | 54c | 2,887$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Jaguars | 57c | 2,863$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.93 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Rams | 47c | 2,554$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.74 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rams | 45c | 2,090$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.43 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Jaguars | 55c | 2,025$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.75 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Jaguars | 53c | 2,002$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.06 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Jaguars | 54c | 1,855$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.7 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee1c…54debacked Rams | 46c | 1,404$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…60a3backed Jaguars | 54c | 1,404$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd21b…3716backed Rams | 46c | 1,299$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d2…b252backed Jaguars | 54c | 1,299$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Rams | 44c | 1,089$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.92 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rams | 45c | 931.13$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.12 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Jaguars | 54c | 742$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.68 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rams | 46c | 710.01$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.86 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Jaguars | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Rams | 46c | 668.94$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.23 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Jaguars | 55c | 557$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.54 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Rams | 47c | 555$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.25 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Jaguars | 54c | 550$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.62 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Rams | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…b39abacked Rams | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Jaguars | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Rams | 47c | 390$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.7 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…95a3backed Jaguars | 54c | 335$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.9 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Rams | 44c | 229.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…535dbacked Rams | 44c | 227$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jaguars | 57c | 220$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Jaguars | 54c | 217$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Jaguars | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Jaguars | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Jaguars | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Jaguars | 54c | 174.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Rams | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Rams | 47c | 159.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Jaguars | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Rams | 46c | 128$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Jaguars | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Jaguars | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rams | 47c | 83.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Rams | 47c | 83.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…430cbacked Jaguars | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Rams | 47c | 74.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Jaguars | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rams | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Rams | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Jaguars | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Jaguars | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…7b68backed Rams | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Rams | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…8c00backed Rams | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…534cbacked Rams | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Jaguars | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Jaguars | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…74f0backed Jaguars | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Jaguars | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Jaguars | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Jaguars | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)this page
- Rams vs. JaguarsRams won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5Under won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Under won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Under won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Rams (-2.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.