NFL · resolved market
Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e9b1ab00b00fe8b45872379122defe7cbbe59c90fd8404fd4660259892f1fd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 62c | 19,672$12,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,132.4 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 51c | 12,143$6,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,938.04 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 7,500$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,659.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 6,291$3,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.6 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 51c | 2,670$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.09 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…c166backed Over | 50c | 2,609$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…1dcabacked Under | 50c | 2,609$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 48c | 2,507$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.11 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f60…fdc8backed Under | 50c | 2,493$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1405…f0dcbacked Over | 50c | 2,493$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 51c | 1,880$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.32 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 48c | 1,531$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.33 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 51c | 1,493$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.64 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 1,471$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.29 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +931.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 51c | 1,394$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.77 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,378$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.21 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Over | 48c | 1,038$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 51c | 961.75$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.26 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 18c | 824$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.82 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 49c | 820$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.8 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Under | 58c | 603.45$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.45 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Over | 50c | 540$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…518cbacked Under | 51c | 539.14$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.18 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 51c | 472.55$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 52c | 439.66$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.01 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c3…3242backed Over | 51c | 392.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 50c | 366.8$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.4 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Over | 47c | 283.02$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.02 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 48c | 147.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 82.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3a…b091backed Under | 52c | 79.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Over | 50c | 79.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf63…b05bbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…deecbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Over | 50c | 33.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5this page
- Rams vs. JaguarsRams won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Under won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Under won
- Rams vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Rams (-2.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.