TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cincinnati Redsof Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,804
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,901

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,804 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds46c7,473$3,441 inWon+$4,032.3210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles54c6,694$3,615 inLost-$3,614.8811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles61c411$250 inLost-$250.114,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb4…3839backed Baltimore Orioles51c332.24$169 inLost-$169.143946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Cincinnati Reds49c97.31$48 inWon+$49.7845952.9%243 W · 216 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked Cincinnati Reds45c80$36 inWon+$4441236.7%151 W · 261 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabbc…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles50c80$40 inLost-$401250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d0…566ebacked Baltimore Orioles50c60$30 inLost-$302347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Baltimore Orioles29c44$13 inLost-$12.81,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Baltimore Orioles61c33.05$20 inLost-$20.161,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds71c30$21 inWon+$8.75,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Baltimore Orioles56c26.28$15 inLost-$14.841,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Baltimore Orioles58c23.74$14 inLost-$13.881,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.