MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18285409e22ffcc5701cd986d36ef82648cb86465a56797747489057e0d35ee4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $262,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $275,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 48c | 208,546$100,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108,502.41 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 52c | 175,232$91,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91,120.55 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 18,753$9,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,706.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 52c | 14,832$7,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,712.09 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…ca8cbacked Over | 49c | 12,710$6,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,482.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 48c | 5,208$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,708.33 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 4,657$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 53c | 4,550$2,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,411.5 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 3,740$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.25 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d0…f7ebbacked Under | 53c | 3,479$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 52c | 3,183$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.25 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 48c | 2,697$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.22 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 2,222$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.66 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 52c | 1,750$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 52c | 1,024$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.48 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 47c | 835.57$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.85 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 520$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.4 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 51c | 492.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.2 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 31c | 348.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.19 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 253$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 53c | 226.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Under | 52c | 180.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 52c | 173$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 47c | 151.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 130$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 78c | 126.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 43c | 121.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 112.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 50c | 109.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Under | 44c | 102.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Under | 53c | 95.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 53c | 95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 51c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 52c | 70.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 44.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 53c | 43.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…4d46backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 52c | 31.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 57c | 25.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 52c | 24.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Under | 50c | 24.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Under | 50c | 23.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…c217backed Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Under | 50c | 20.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3584backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -13.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati RedsBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 14.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 15.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.