TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,058
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,456

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,058 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Cincinnati Reds38c34,172$12,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,985.151,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds42c9,359$3,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,912.4411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles62c7,935$4,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,015.376,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles62c7,475$4,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,845.255,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles67c5,639$3,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.7110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles62c5,132$3,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.194,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Baltimore Orioles63c4,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,48044749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles57c2,246$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.788,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles63c2,239$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.381,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles62c2,215$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.76,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Baltimore Orioles62c2,048$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.242,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds37c1,851$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.4212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Baltimore Orioles64c1,538$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.8379255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Cincinnati Reds36c1,221$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.5671650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Baltimore Orioles62c1,144$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.9147350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Cincinnati Reds37c879$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.2355653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Baltimore Orioles63c878.01$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.772,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds37c877.01$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.412,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Baltimore Orioles62c793.73$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.6297050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Cincinnati Reds40c781.1$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.8482636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Baltimore Orioles64c772.44$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.061,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles63c732.86$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.558,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles58c590.12$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.34,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Baltimore Orioles62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1901,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Baltimore Orioles62c491.67$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.422,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Baltimore Orioles62c486.45$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.851,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Baltimore Orioles62c482.56$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.3761450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Baltimore Orioles63c468.76$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.441,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Cincinnati Reds37c410.68$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles62c376$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.772,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds33c373.64$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.39,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Baltimore Orioles57c360.23$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.284,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Baltimore Orioles61c327.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8664452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Baltimore Orioles63c308.35$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.091,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7693…470fbacked Baltimore Orioles65c307.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7721354.5%116 W · 97 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles62c298.98$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.613,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04ed…0adfbacked Baltimore Orioles64c192.14$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1724657.3%141 W · 105 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds37c181$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.972,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57fe…13c1backed Cincinnati Reds39c175.18$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.326131.1%19 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles62c162$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.942,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Baltimore Orioles63c158.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0440447.8%193 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Cincinnati Reds33c137$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.211,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee84…becbbacked Baltimore Orioles54c130.7$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9121852.8%115 W · 103 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd991…faeabacked Baltimore Orioles64c125$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4540449.3%199 W · 205 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Cincinnati Reds39c122.49$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7719540%78 W · 117 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Baltimore Orioles63c111.11$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1167449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Baltimore Orioles63c81.92$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3127454.4%149 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbf…49c1backed Baltimore Orioles62c81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7818347%86 W · 97 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles64c80.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.032,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Baltimore Orioles62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.41,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…abe3backed Baltimore Orioles64c79.25$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5335149.3%173 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddfc…cd9ebacked Baltimore Orioles64c78.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2116250.6%82 W · 80 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles72c78$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.845,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc29f…dc4ebacked Baltimore Orioles64c76.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.678545.9%39 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Cincinnati Reds35c73.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6692046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Cincinnati Reds37c69.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8123240.9%95 W · 137 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Cincinnati Reds33c67.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.254,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Cincinnati Reds24c65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe16…60bebacked Baltimore Orioles63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.499761.9%60 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed Baltimore Orioles63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4935353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0098…71e0backed Baltimore Orioles64c61.48$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1315252%79 W · 73 L+0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e4…9bacbacked Cincinnati Reds38c61.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.123652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Baltimore Orioles64c61$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9653950.6%273 W · 266 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c2…e9bfbacked Cincinnati Reds36c58.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.962445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Baltimore Orioles54c58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6831848.7%155 W · 163 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Cincinnati Reds38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2068942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles68c48.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.665,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Cincinnati Reds44c47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7188046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Baltimore Orioles57c43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.491,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Cincinnati Reds38c41.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7346952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Baltimore Orioles62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.273849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb188…8be3backed Baltimore Orioles62c39.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.25042%21 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Cincinnati Reds37c39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4339250.3%197 W · 195 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Baltimore Orioles63c37.78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9844553.5%238 W · 207 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Cincinnati Reds45c35.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.121,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb556…b5e5backed Cincinnati Reds38c32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.165044%22 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Baltimore Orioles63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7531250%156 W · 156 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed Baltimore Orioles64c29.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5824742.9%106 W · 141 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed5…3320backed Cincinnati Reds37c27.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.323953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Cincinnati Reds43c27.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.581,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Baltimore Orioles63c25.39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3452852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Baltimore Orioles58c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.546659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Baltimore Orioles61c23.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2877647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c52…99e1backed Baltimore Orioles64c23.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.574975.5%37 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38ef…8800backed Baltimore Orioles62c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3642448.1%204 W · 220 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Baltimore Orioles64c21.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8889950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab41…822dbacked Baltimore Orioles64c16.48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.937955.7%44 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb8e…58f6backed Baltimore Orioles64c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.76683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.