MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b16c5085c5318730ee4e09e79049c4e1a2b34828ad653014721d87402f9b67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 6,275$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,643.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 6,202$4,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,589.83 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 2,514$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.14 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 1,356$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.15 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 605$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.3 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 315.1$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.18 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 233$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.07 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Baltimore Orioles | 15c | 88.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb175…fd32backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 78.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 67.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 16c | 65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 44.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 41.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 32.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf561…f20dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati RedsBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 14.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 15.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 17.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.