MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93abf69a30e3de4fe031fd70848648b233cd5c36e6e865ffae3507b3270255d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 5,452$3,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,818.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 4,965$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,121.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 3,938$2,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.23 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 3,920$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.62 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 3,860$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,648.04 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 3,040$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 2,392$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 2,103$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.99 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 1,127$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.28 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 876.69$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.31 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 777$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.51 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 675$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.08 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 349$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.87 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 224.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.38 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 218.94$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 208.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 164.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 135$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.45 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 104.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 94.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 89.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 83.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 78.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 55.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 51.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 49.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 46.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 46.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 39.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 38.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +10.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 33.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 32.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 31.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…4d46backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 30.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 29.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 25.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 22.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 15.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati RedsBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 14.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 15.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 17.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.