Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd199b713c95a3f33d78d970e1eb998b9c93f12dd8f1fea521a113111ac729a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 456.94$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 294.97$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 250$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 75c | 244.98$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 46c | 185.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 181.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 56c | 171.21$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 165.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 162.13$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 139.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 77c | 124.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 44c | 122.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 116.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 41c | 106$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 97.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 82.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed Yes | 40c | 78.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 38c | 65.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 57c | 63.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 60.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 55.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 48c | 50.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…9f3cbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 29c | 49.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 53c | 46.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 63c | 44.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 42.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 42c | 40.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 62c | 30.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…9fe1backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 29.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 28.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 28.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 26.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 18.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 18.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.