Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1a416ee0f9bbb1070f8020bae6e5e3ec2f87932ea8f93e040c56f634629249e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 652.81$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 394.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.91 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 19c | 393.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.56 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 392.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 374.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 329.07$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.77 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed No | 3c | 321.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 288.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…4492backed Yes | 11c | 274.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +289%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 240.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.36 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 15c | 234.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.45 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 199.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…f584backed No | 9c | 193.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 27c | 185.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.76 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 33c | 169.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.17 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 159.52$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.97 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…b8c9backed Yes | 14c | 135.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed No | 79c | 123.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 117.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 65c | 117.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 74c | 106.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 21c | 97.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 95.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 70c | 87.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 22c | 71.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 34c | 62.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 75c | 59.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 43c | 52.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 44c | 52.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 49.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 70c | 42.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 32c | 38.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 27c | 38.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 73c | 37.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 35c | 32.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 77c | 25.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 25.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 68c | 23.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 74c | 18.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 67c | 16.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 75c | 16.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe365…c0d8backed No | 72c | 16.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.