Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x093fdd491b276068ef9e8a4578656c88f273c98c4c496f0ffdb5d2d9d5cd78ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,379$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…6d49backed Yes | 1c | 1,081$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 78c | 756.9$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.08 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 625$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 418.45$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 46c | 298.91$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.43 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 11c | 254.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.45 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 38c | 248.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.73 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 189.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 77c | 183.01$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.63 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…f584backed Yes | 67c | 143.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 11c | 114.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…b8c9backed No | 17c | 109.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 40c | 86.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 68.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 67.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 65.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 66c | 60.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 66c | 57.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 55.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4c78…4f7bbacked Yes | 38c | 50.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 69c | 49.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 32c | 48.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 39c | 47.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 34c | 47.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…5b35backed Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 65c | 43.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked Yes | 25c | 41.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 39.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 79c | 37.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 44c | 36.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…1dc1backed No | 62c | 36.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaf…fd68backed Yes | 45c | 34.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 69c | 34.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 60c | 33.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 71c | 31.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415e…e151backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6397…758bbacked Yes | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…eb82backed No | 62c | 25.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 80c | 24.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 50c | 24.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 62c | 20.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 63c | 19.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 70c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 63c | 18.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 63c | 16.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.