Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f48ca87e7709408ef8dd806edab185a59aac6a8621b6f0d9e64bf7cfcbab9df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e9…ea16backed Yes | 0c | 17,166$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 77c | 428.18$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.37 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 43c | 369.25$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.78 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 62c | 335.14$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 29c | 333.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 21c | 238.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 69c | 228.67$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…ef6bbacked Yes | 59c | 200.07$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 62c | 197.69$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 172.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 130.68$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 23c | 106.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 55c | 103.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed Yes | 46c | 102.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 68c | 94.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 83.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 29c | 80.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 49c | 77.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 48c | 76.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 74.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 71.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed Yes | 42c | 71.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 67.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked Yes | 58c | 66.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 40c | 64.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 63.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 65c | 59.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 24c | 56.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…65e6backed Yes | 33c | 50.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 65c | 49.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 57c | 48.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 47.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 46.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…a0a2backed Yes | 36c | 46.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 32c | 46.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 44.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8693…f6f4backed Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 41.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 76c | 40.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 73c | 38.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 49c | 38.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10c7…efa6backed No | 67c | 37.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 37.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 37c | 37.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 30c | 35.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 34.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5079…5988backed No | 67c | 34.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 66c | 34.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 65c | 34.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 57c | 33.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 40c | 32.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed Yes | 37c | 30.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 49c | 29.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 57c | 25.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 52c | 23.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…f584backed Yes | 44c | 22.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 61c | 22.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 72c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecf2…0aa6backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 73c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked No | 73c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.