Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1d23e302bdca879eb0a877f230e337feab26cebea946cf474a70ccf0ac47d24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Yes | 2c | 17,478$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.33 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…4f80backed Yes | 34c | 2,941$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 2,930$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.94 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 22c | 2,120$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.46 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Yes | 33c | 1,797$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 1,542$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.16 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…d196backed No | 67c | 1,428$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.8 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 80c | 786.14$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.66 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 66c | 480$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed Yes | 33c | 441.68$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 78c | 324.68$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…50d3backed Yes | 34c | 251.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 67c | 226.91$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…bbdabacked No | 49c | 204.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f26…b8ccbacked Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 182.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 20c | 179.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 170.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Yes | 50c | 153$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 33c | 146.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed No | 77c | 129.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 27c | 111.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked No | 50c | 109.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 31c | 101$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 80c | 99.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27d0…5444backed Yes | 34c | 86.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 34c | 86.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked No | 74c | 83.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…7800backed No | 79c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 23c | 75.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 70c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 30c | 73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 29c | 70.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 66c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed No | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 35c | 65.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 40c | 65.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 33c | 64.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 38c | 55.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…a32ebacked Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 33c | 43.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 26c | 41.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…8cb5backed Yes | 53c | 40.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 50c | 40.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Yes | 33c | 40.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Yes | 50c | 39.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Yes | 52c | 37.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Yes | 52c | 36.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…e52cbacked Yes | 46c | 34.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked No | 66c | 31.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…7685backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked No | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 54c | 25.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed No | 59c | 22.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 20.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…c830backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 61c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 68c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 67c | 15.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 67c | 15.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?No won
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.