Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf322de00fb728a1b3db70319730e3e14f88af590d4e5211127b9891bbd5c02cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7f…657ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,166$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284d…59f7backed No | 64c | 4,248$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 31c | 1,597$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.16 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Yes | 15c | 1,406$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.92 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 991$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.61 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 33c | 910.37$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.13 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 797.17$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.94 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 35c | 518.53$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.69 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 26c | 506.38$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 226.9$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 70c | 214.04$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 36c | 154.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 28c | 150.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 73c | 140.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 26c | 132.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 53c | 123.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 27c | 107$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked Yes | 27c | 94.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed No | 74c | 84.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 64c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 74.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 26c | 73.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 64c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 50.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 50.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 79c | 48.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked No | 70c | 43.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…21cbbacked No | 42c | 42.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +228%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 41.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 74c | 38.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed No | 38c | 37.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed Yes | 42c | 32.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes | 38c | 30.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked No | 74c | 30.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…756cbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 75c | 17.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.