TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-04-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$110,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,590

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,967 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ba8…cdb3backed No60c25,555$15,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,333742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Yes40c24,821$9,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,892.42580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+74.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes44c20,861$9,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,697.6816045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No76c14,161$10,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,778.37666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No57c7,860$4,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,466.743,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes39c5,746$2,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,483.3948141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes41c4,702$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,774.62,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes25c3,722$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,798.651,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f8d…a19bbacked No75c1,400$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes25c1,045$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.511,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Yes34c599.74$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.7224541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No71c582.66$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.3878248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yes36c569.17$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.6239857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked Yes47c554.96$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.833751.4%19 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Yes39c553.93$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.054163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a53…074abacked Yes37c549.2$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.292166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+61.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Yes44c506.98$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.834971.4%35 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Yes42c476.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.198050%40 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Yes38c472.11$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.716752.2%35 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x660d…56acbacked Yes41c469.73$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.149043.3%39 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Yes40c458.75$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.793655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No16c450.44$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.028630.2%26 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed Yes45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.446550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb897…fc48backed Yes24c410$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.611741.9%49 W · 68 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes25c379.42$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.8640744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7f…657ebacked Yes32c356.25$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.043125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes27c347.42$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.8981732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes40c331.11$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.611,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Yes55c290.78$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.6517749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes40c258$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.856951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes39c254.2$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.285834.5%20 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed Yes41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.93562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked Yes42c237.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.286761.2%41 W · 26 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f89…e85bbacked Yes39c230$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Yes40c206.6$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.962853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked No56c201.23$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.143961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Yes40c194.22$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.7911148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed Yes44c184.15$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.452433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Yes31c171.71$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.1612460.5%75 W · 49 L+19.9wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+46.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes78c171.6$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7549143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1cc…1958backed Yes44c170.47$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.921764.7%11 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No58c163.57$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0862452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Yes42c156.23$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.246758.2%39 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No20c156$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7122221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed No56c155.75$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.223043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57a6…44edbacked No59c144.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.847755.8%43 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Yes48c141.85$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.616860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Yes34c137.49$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.412626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes76c136.97$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.693259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes40c131.82$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0938646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Yes39c128.9$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.042759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1792…118abacked Yes59c127.69$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6510865.7%71 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+90.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked No60c123.31$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.997959.5%47 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Yes28c114.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.563330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9720…2c24backed No28c107.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.221816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7910246.1%47 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f26…b8ccbacked No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes24c97.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7811748.7%57 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked No49c91.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1848146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2bf…95d3backed No19c91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…a2d6backed Yes50c90.43$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.21666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+108.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Yes41c77.32$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.621850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed No20c75.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9728822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No50c74.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6749647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8405…2163backed Yes42c73.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8118140.3%73 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa361…3ea7backed No80c71.1$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes40c68.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.377450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes32c68.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.517262.5%45 W · 27 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes39c66.96$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0276234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb1a…5cddbacked Yes40c64.81$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.721770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes41c61.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.494753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9f…b23bbacked No59c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.17361.6%45 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes46c51.41$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7655058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe65b…bde7backed Yes41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+102.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No67c48.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.720548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked No61c46.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5111049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbec3…22b6backed Yes24c45.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.772556%14 W · 11 L+5.8wins+0.23per pick33cpaid+70.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed No66c44.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.277349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked Yes40c44.02$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.413161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed No74c40.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1939558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4155…fa41backed Yes66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.62369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes40c38.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0911762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Yes43c38.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6916464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Yes54c38.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5927554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked No70c36.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.647751.9%40 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Yes39c35.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.566952.2%36 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b77…1953backed Yes38c34.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.213138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed No56c33.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.033351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a05…8573backed Yes35c33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.511947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe748…bc49backed Yes42c31.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.134339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x07e3…37b1backed No79c31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.491136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f0…c57abacked No60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186457.8%37 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.71,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked No76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.82462.5%15 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick67cpaid+13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Yes41c29.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.664845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97a8…078dbacked Yes41c28.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.081662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Yes43c28.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ebf…2da0backed No61c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.543759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked No60c19.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.697265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.