Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1f0d041fe69f3d102bf313e1e1e6d582181db15a5d4d84d9c77d80454080258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 17c | 2,459$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.66 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,071$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 19c | 807.07$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 12c | 592.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 21c | 312.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 242.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 10c | 213$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 203.8$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 198.75$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 11c | 196.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 185.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 164.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 35c | 163$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 18c | 161$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 18c | 115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 108.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed Yes | 13c | 102.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 11c | 101.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 13c | 88.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 73.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 20c | 72.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712b…d2c0backed Yes | 30c | 56.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 20c | 51.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 39c | 48.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 24.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.