Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce49884fa95fdf5cf0e121ab41fa154b2592c76f9a2464423e27169d3d7f02b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 61c | 2,948$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.56 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 1,904$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 68c | 1,674$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 32c | 604.55$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.48 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 544.69$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.86 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 39c | 519.16$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 62c | 500$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.09 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 62c | 482.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 7c | 387.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 71c | 382.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 356.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 343.69$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 40c | 297.68$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 251.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…b8c7backed Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 55c | 241.45$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 220.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 217.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 212.49$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 35c | 210.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 203.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 193.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 24c | 172.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 161.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 65c | 160.69$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 142.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 65c | 123.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 70c | 123$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 41c | 112$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 96.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 65c | 96.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 66c | 95.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3736backed No | 32c | 91.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 53c | 86.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 47c | 85.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 81.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 38c | 80.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 76.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 73.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 59c | 68.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 39c | 62.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 64c | 61.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 34c | 58.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 33c | 57.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 46c | 56.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…5910backed No | 38c | 56.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 38c | 55.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 42c | 54.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…369cbacked No | 33c | 53.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 64c | 50.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 41c | 50.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…fb3dbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747e…3e23backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 66c | 49.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed No | 48c | 48.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9653…02abbacked Yes | 62c | 47.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 47.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…c962backed No | 38c | 47.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 35c | 45.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 35c | 45.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 60c | 44.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 38c | 41.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf77e…4c8dbacked Yes | 63c | 40.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 27c | 39.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…821cbacked No | 34c | 39.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 38.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd10d…8f16backed No | 47c | 37.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 52c | 33.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 36c | 30.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 34c | 29.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked No | 35c | 28.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…dbb2backed No | 42c | 28.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 36c | 28.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 62c | 27.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 68c | 27.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.