TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,260
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,260 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes61c2,948$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.561,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes45c1,904$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0481,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes68c1,674$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.944,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No32c604.55$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.481,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No48c544.69$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.861,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No39c519.16$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.424,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes62c500$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.091,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes62c482.02$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.028,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No7c387.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.991,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes71c382.99$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.655,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No25c356.4$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.595,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No45c343.69$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No40c297.68$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3937056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No36c251.15$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.414,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No54c250$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1356845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.4wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf591…b8c7backed Yes70c250$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No55c241.45$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.991,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No40c220.89$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.55,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No24c217.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No55c212.49$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.873,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No35c210.5$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.134,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No38c203.8$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.865,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No51c193.52$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.81,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No24c172.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.672,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No32c161.68$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.366,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2856…c8f9backed Yes65c160.69$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.694753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No34c142.89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.019,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes36c140$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.68,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes65c123.84$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes70c123$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.41,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.215950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x418a…64c0backed No41c112$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.925343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5542547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b2…d3d9backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x156b…baa0backed No33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No41c96.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.843,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes65c96.45$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5430332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7071…91dfbacked Yes66c95.59$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.963132.3%10 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-40%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe373…3736backed No32c91.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.471250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes64c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No53c86.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6927056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No47c85.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No63c81.41$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.982,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No38c80.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.751,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No64c78.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5087629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No35c76.81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.84,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No38c75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.573,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No41c75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c73.67$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.236,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No59c68.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.972,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No30c67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.11,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No39c62.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7525954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…3925backed Yes64c61.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.254427.3%12 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.91,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1824046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No34c58.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No33c57.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.657948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No46c56.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1670741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfcf…5910backed No38c56.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.591145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No38c55.61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8740352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x733c…c0a7backed No41c55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.555538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No42c54.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8993837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x205b…369cbacked No33c53.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes64c50.53$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1854335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No41c50.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.631,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd0…fb3dbacked Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.518629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.518131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x747e…3e23backed Yes64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes66c49.49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8330849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca3…8109backed No48c48.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.323172.5%8 W · 309 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1582268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9653…02abbacked Yes62c47.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.161376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes66c47.85$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.051,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5e…c962backed No38c47.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.21944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No35c45.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8294552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No35c45.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.823,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed Yes60c44.9$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.799038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No38c41.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf77e…4c8dbacked Yes63c40.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.12850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.414161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No27c39.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.862,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x671b…821cbacked No34c39.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.55955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c38.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd10d…8f16backed No47c37.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.491040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No56c37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7213845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes52c33.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1833746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed No36c30.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2219345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No34c29.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0394066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked No35c28.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.087425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x478f…dbb2backed No42c28.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.831668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No36c28.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1466944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes62c27.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.624,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes68c27.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0111331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.