Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41f4276b25ad2d43ff4030baf4a5431682c07b7b6812fb9b7479459bc9723473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 1,480$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 767.32$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 604.13$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 319.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…7edabacked No | 72c | 302.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 22c | 288.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 264.7$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 19c | 256.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 18c | 256.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 23c | 250.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 211.15$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 199.94$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 199$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 185.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 185.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 165.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 22c | 160.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 151.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 145$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 128.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 120.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 112.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 98.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 76.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 28c | 74.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 21c | 68.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 67.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 55.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 50.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked Yes | 28c | 46.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed No | 80c | 34.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 23.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 78c | 22.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 22.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…ddfebacked No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.