Tennis · resolved market
Campinas: Johan Nikles vs Valerio Aboian
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd22589ac6adcce215b8118fab3b4a1dc3bdf67df225bdd88ad39bd72a98443c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Johan Niklesof Johan Nikles, Valerio Aboian
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4699…5051backed Valerio Aboian | 6c | 1,798$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Valerio Aboian | 24c | 1,682$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.16 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Johan Nikles | 53c | 998.21$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.16 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed Valerio Aboian | 49c | 969.37$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Valerio Aboian | 47c | 502.45$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.15 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Johan Nikles | 52c | 466.92$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.12 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Johan Nikles | 71c | 464.66$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Valerio Aboian | 47c | 435.69$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.77 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Valerio Aboian | 18c | 426.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Johan Nikles | 62c | 409.79$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.72 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Johan Nikles | 52c | 327.29$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.1 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Valerio Aboian | 47c | 274.87$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.19 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Valerio Aboian | 45c | 263.22$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Johan Nikles | 52c | 261.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.76 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…934dbacked Valerio Aboian | 11c | 208.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 307 | 15.6%48 W · 259 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Johan Nikles | 53c | 199.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Johan Nikles | 53c | 198.25$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Valerio Aboian | 7c | 151.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Johan Nikles | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 292 | 30.5%89 W · 203 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Valerio Aboian | 46c | 144.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Johan Nikles | 53c | 141.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 198 | 51%101 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Valerio Aboian | 49c | 129.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Johan Nikles | 52c | 127.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Johan Nikles | 56c | 106.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Valerio Aboian | 48c | 106$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 342 | 42.4%145 W · 197 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Valerio Aboian | 28c | 105.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6f…5439backed Valerio Aboian | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Johan Nikles | 54c | 102.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Johan Nikles | 52c | 98.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…c00abacked Johan Nikles | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2114…69a1backed Johan Nikles | 53c | 91.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Johan Nikles | 52c | 83.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Valerio Aboian | 47c | 82.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 308 | 53.6%165 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…0575backed Valerio Aboian | 49c | 79.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…8688backed Johan Nikles | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Valerio Aboian | 45c | 63.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Valerio Aboian | 40c | 55.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Johan Nikles | 63c | 54.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Johan Nikles | 52c | 41.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Valerio Aboian | 30c | 39.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Johan Nikles | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 275 | 43.3%119 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Valerio Aboian | 47c | 36.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Valerio Aboian | 48c | 34.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Johan Nikles | 75c | 31.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 218 | 45.9%100 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Valerio Aboian | 46c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Valerio Aboian | 47c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1e…9ce2backed Johan Nikles | 68c | 27.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…c067backed Johan Nikles | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 87 | 69%60 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Valerio Aboian | 47c | 26.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.