TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

NBA Summer League: Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Atlanta Hawksof Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$238,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,327 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Boston Celtics0c104,171$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.551,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Atlanta Hawks58c37,060$21,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,455.7837355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Boston Celtics42c23,621$9,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,988.8421549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Boston Celtics0c19,400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7231222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Boston Celtics40c7,852$3,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,178.7842842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Boston Celtics43c7,818$3,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,382.5126753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Atlanta Hawks58c7,294$4,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,063.487650%38 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Boston Celtics0c6,643$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.435502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e2…4b92backed Boston Celtics43c5,193$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.3914042.9%60 W · 80 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Atlanta Hawks57c4,245$2,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825.9713442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Boston Celtics4c2,898$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.651181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.35per pick47cpaid+126.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Boston Celtics25c2,647$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.4117646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08e7…4f63backed Boston Celtics44c2,531$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Boston Celtics42c2,289$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.3218445.7%84 W · 100 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Boston Celtics11c2,280$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.771850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe77…8fe4backed Boston Celtics42c2,095$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Atlanta Hawks67c1,873$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.443339.4%13 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-37.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5839…2c33backed Atlanta Hawks55c1,807$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.041163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Boston Celtics17c1,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.915844.8%26 W · 32 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Atlanta Hawks55c1,344$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.2150346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Boston Celtics41c1,243$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.6222753.3%121 W · 106 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Hawks76c1,023$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.878,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…5806backed Boston Celtics20c1,009$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Atlanta Hawks57c999.19$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.92,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba7…dd5abacked Atlanta Hawks61c979.93$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.93560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Atlanta Hawks75c958.57$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.619548.2%94 W · 101 L+12.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Atlanta Hawks58c831.48$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.1510761.7%66 W · 41 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1852…cb4ebacked Boston Celtics42c799.98$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.998230.5%25 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Boston Celtics43c797.12$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.762339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Atlanta Hawks64c743.98$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.9321653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3099…3896backed Boston Celtics31c733.76$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.8920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Atlanta Hawks50c705.02$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.0221957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Boston Celtics53c602.73$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.1136023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Atlanta Hawks66c534.11$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8220353.7%109 W · 94 L+21.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4dae…c996backed Boston Celtics43c507.72$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf764…61e6backed Boston Celtics10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf903…de2fbacked Atlanta Hawks61c482.7$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.97825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Boston Celtics38c477.01$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.198654.7%47 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Atlanta Hawks49c446.28$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.6168838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Boston Celtics16c419.76$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.512846.9%60 W · 68 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+29.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Boston Celtics41c405.77$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.713764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+48.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf280…d801backed Boston Celtics13c367.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.752441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9abb…3f96backed Atlanta Hawks56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.144052.5%21 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd360…2eabbacked Boston Celtics36c322.22$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Boston Celtics35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10514357.3%82 W · 61 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5d3…6b98backed Atlanta Hawks63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa177…4b0dbacked Boston Celtics17c299.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503718.9%7 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x587c…9c4ebacked Boston Celtics40c298.3$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.22728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8920…9c0cbacked Atlanta Hawks70c293.82$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.251471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Atlanta Hawks62c256$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2825954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Boston Celtics41c250.92$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.746,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Boston Celtics43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10062652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d3f…d6e2backed Atlanta Hawks70c231.53$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Boston Celtics44c217.69$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.799655.2%53 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafc4…3063backed Boston Celtics51c210.25$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Atlanta Hawks56c209.87$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Atlanta Hawks62c204.02$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.023366.7%22 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c73…750abacked Boston Celtics43c200$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874934.7%17 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf990…88bcbacked Boston Celtics36c199.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.995143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e58…fb5abacked Boston Celtics45c199.92$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.969349.5%46 W · 47 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked Atlanta Hawks57c196.72$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.724856.3%27 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Atlanta Hawks57c187.12$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4635546.5%165 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x378c…14b8backed Boston Celtics42c177.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.76742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39d…aa9dbacked Boston Celtics45c157.24$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.761136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d32…ae18backed Atlanta Hawks66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.52757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ec…ee4abacked Boston Celtics48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+64.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Atlanta Hawks48c120$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.127245.6%124 W · 148 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Atlanta Hawks59c117.79$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.797050%35 W · 35 L+8.0wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+54.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32c6…bf45backed Atlanta Hawks57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Atlanta Hawks48c103.03$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.93,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf983…39a0backed Boston Celtics49c102.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ee…0439backed Atlanta Hawks50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8443…2988backed Boston Celtics51c97.48$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.321675%12 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f79…d807backed Atlanta Hawks64c94.66$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.081040%4 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Boston Celtics43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030945.3%140 W · 169 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed Atlanta Hawks44c90.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.922245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ec1…b7b3backed Atlanta Hawks62c81.8$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1645…5838backed Boston Celtics39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302040%8 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Boston Celtics41c75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7542853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ee…fc4bbacked Boston Celtics42c74.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.422254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef4a…021fbacked Atlanta Hawks67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x663e…9cf0backed Atlanta Hawks44c71.56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.742445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Atlanta Hawks58c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.435532.4%115 W · 240 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Boston Celtics48c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8711160.4%67 W · 44 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x499c…2f8ebacked Boston Celtics48c67.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.465251.9%27 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-21.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Boston Celtics42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.436749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a89…7ea7backed Atlanta Hawks43c58.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked Atlanta Hawks56c52.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.141637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-42.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed Atlanta Hawks52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244445.5%20 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25a4…69f6backed Atlanta Hawks62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Boston Celtics36c48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2815759.2%93 W · 64 L+9.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Atlanta Hawks58c46.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.524663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+43.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Atlanta Hawks59c44.68$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.351741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d1f…9ef1backed Boston Celtics49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Hawks56c39.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4552150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4241…ad76backed Atlanta Hawks54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.041428.6%4 W · 10 L-4.3wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-50.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Atlanta Hawks59c36.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.122250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf49…b4a5backed Boston Celtics46c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe246…dedcbacked Atlanta Hawks63c34.49$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9312059.2%71 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2af9…620ebacked Boston Celtics46c32.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.