MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd250cda8d115bb7620671f7f651cad1bfc3e1e608e754218387d15d41604d031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 2,773$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 57c | 2,434$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 57c | 368$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 16c | 302$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 118$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros | 31c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 31.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.