MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81f2f2017a39b919b5a2264d9e1b3a6a393ff13358842207af399b8f61eca0ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 66c | 6,153$4,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 4,040$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 1,957$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 35c | 295$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Under | 70c | 285.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e80…416dbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 203.1$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 30c | 191.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 41c | 184$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 181.46$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 70c | 136.37$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 33c | 114.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 69c | 80.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 22c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 70c | 55.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 28c | 43.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 32c | 39.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 30c | 33.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.