TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,726
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,726 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Houston Astros56c2,118$1,185 inWon+$933.2160350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers44c1,465$650 inLost-$649.7512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Milwaukee Brewers54c555$300 inLost-$299.72,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…e4a2backed Houston Astros33c306.06$101 inWon+$205.067450%37 W · 37 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers67c298.06$200 inLost-$199.78,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers64c141.19$91 inLost-$90.711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Milwaukee Brewers13c123$16 inLost-$15.991,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Houston Astros33c60$20 inWon+$40.21,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked Milwaukee Brewers45c59.99$27 inLost-$26.894235.7%15 W · 27 L-7.8wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-37.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Milwaukee Brewers41c48.29$20 inLost-$19.61,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros33c33.36$11 inWon+$22.353,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Houston Astros34c30$10 inWon+$19.834843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0e1…6935backed Milwaukee Brewers41c27.88$11 inLost-$11.51353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Milwaukee Brewers67c20$13 inLost-$13.41,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.