MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d91b70f09fd9c6aea86b2c5f381bdd964b4bd73d79d723610d03d91baaa9ba9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 2,850$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 2,531$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.47 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 2,219$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.32 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 51c | 2,015$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 1,923$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 60c | 1,439$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.69 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Houston Astros | 60c | 1,248$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.07 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,146$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.04 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 1,009$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…9c28backed Houston Astros | 61c | 651.11$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.93 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 648.46$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.42 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 451.47$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 60c | 370.82$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.33 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Houston Astros | 60c | 362.26$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 293.1$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 62c | 275.21$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 246$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 226$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Houston Astros | 61c | 199.96$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 60c | 140.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Houston Astros | 59c | 131.04$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Houston Astros | 62c | 115.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 113.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 111.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 110.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 108$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros | 56c | 97.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Houston Astros | 67c | 51.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Houston Astros | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Houston Astros | 60c | 40.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 36.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Houston Astros | 60c | 31.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Houston Astros | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Houston Astros | 56c | 20.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.