Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2728174c33675107efa1bd8b3a066823f3914f8221fd8317ef19411708c674b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd391…13bdbacked Yes | 74c | 1,064$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 22c | 670.84$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 468.91$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.41 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 221.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 210$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 15c | 189.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…1fbfbacked Yes | 35c | 173.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 172$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 165$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 39c | 160.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 63c | 159.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 153.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.79 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 141.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 40c | 141.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 126$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 110.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 106.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 76c | 105.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 76c | 87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 77c | 81.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 76.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 49c | 75.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5f62backed Yes | 18c | 74.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 26c | 73.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 33c | 61.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 19c | 61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 75c | 53.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 50.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 50.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 34.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 50c | 34.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 72c | 33.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 61c | 23.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 22.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 71c | 21.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 61c | 17.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.