Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x706f211f2f876605c8abc5cb130fccc923ed43ba928aeeecb2f93ef9486176dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 69c | 413.55$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.46 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 236.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 39c | 230.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 56c | 222.6$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 63c | 198.07$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 18c | 195.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 161.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 49c | 156.81$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 50c | 150.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 135$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 116.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 52c | 114.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 48c | 112.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 106$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 83.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 75.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 65.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 71c | 64.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 36c | 63.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 58.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 54.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 52.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 55c | 50.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…1fbfbacked Yes | 52c | 50.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 61c | 48.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 44c | 48.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 52c | 47.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 38c | 46.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 38c | 46.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 73c | 43.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 32c | 40.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 37.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 80c | 35.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 42c | 35.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 43c | 26.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 66c | 22.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 66c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 21.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes | 62c | 21.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 59c | 21.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.