TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, M80
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,553
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,648

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,553 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Aurora Gaming43c698.96$303 inWon+$396.435,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked M8057c600$342 inLost-$3421,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Aurora Gaming48c500$240 inWon+$2608061.3%49 W · 31 L+7.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb53…7b74backed M8052c500$260 inLost-$2603953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed M8055c98.96$54 inLost-$54.4351348.3%248 W · 265 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Aurora Gaming53c59.38$32 inWon+$27.7216051.3%82 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked M8046c50$23 inLost-$2332536%117 W · 208 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Aurora Gaming50c39.98$20 inWon+$19.992,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed M8050c39.98$20 inLost-$19.9961948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Aurora Gaming50c30$15 inWon+$1549947.5%237 W · 262 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed M8050c30$15 inLost-$1532344.3%143 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Aurora Gaming44c29.14$13 inWon+$16.322,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bc1…3f1cbacked M8056c29.14$16 inLost-$16.324030%12 W · 28 L-7.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-39.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed M8056c22.72$13 inLost-$12.7260451%308 W · 296 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.