TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Astros vs. Mariners

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Marinersof Astros, Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$285,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$293,925

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,392 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fbc…9a2cbacked Astros30c100,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0001020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Mariners73c39,372$28,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,723.2186751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Astros43c33,088$14,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,237.561,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Mariners68c29,599$20,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,420.372,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Mariners57c29,216$16,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,562.8960451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Mariners69c21,579$14,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,763.5397950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Astros50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00053150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Mariners70c18,924$13,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,677.21,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Astros20c12,664$2,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,512.7895930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mariners56c6,757$3,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,967.862,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Mariners50c6,718$3,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,358.9450852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Mariners57c6,071$3,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,610.7111454.4%62 W · 52 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Mariners54c4,747$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.8355053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Mariners50c3,850$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,925.0416551.5%85 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Mariners50c3,850$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9253625%9 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Mariners50c3,700$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8508156.8%46 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Astros25c3,554$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.3317927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xae0e…6527backed Astros29c3,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8802948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Astros44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.9931346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Mariners57c2,987$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.716747.9%80 W · 87 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Astros45c2,875$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.875352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c95…0a3abacked Mariners56c2,475$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08911555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Mariners62c2,112$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.881,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Astros46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Astros42c1,883$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78761346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Mariners79c1,850$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.368769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Mariners70c1,800$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54054941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Astros6c1,714$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6496133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Mariners57c1,596$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.3911057.3%63 W · 47 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dae…0907backed Mariners56c1,571$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.24728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-49.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe005…a6ddbacked Astros44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a98…e6dabacked Mariners56c1,500$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+55.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x372d…05d5backed Astros44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+31.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Mariners57c1,487$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.5660249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x900d…a480backed Mariners56c1,429$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeef3…fb40backed Mariners56c1,429$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.765100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+111.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x29c7…5d54backed Astros44c1,300$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…5547backed Astros44c1,300$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05e6…669abacked Astros44c1,300$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+23.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0284…a2e8backed Astros44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78f4…ac3dbacked Mariners56c1,171$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.24875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Mariners57c1,077$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.1980955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Mariners73c1,040$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.7543946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Astros2c1,028$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.328762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5205…492dbacked Mariners56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Astros43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4304030%12 W · 28 L-6.9wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Astros39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39032042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Mariners57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4301,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Mariners55c949.97$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.4838249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf730…3de2backed Mariners57c877.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.1913151.9%68 W · 63 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Astros2c812.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7841643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Mariners62c800.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.0953448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Mariners54c800$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36814148.2%68 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c53…a22abacked Astros32c770.29$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2461040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Astros1c770$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Astros36c697.78$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25024154.4%131 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Astros39c610$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5618837.8%71 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Astros43c581$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8338444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84b8…8590backed Astros43c511.63$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Mariners75c510.31$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6826650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Mariners57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21524248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Astros42c449.99$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9944443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcdc…15cabacked Mariners55c440$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1987847.4%37 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a1…a8e1backed Mariners56c439.29$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.2915949.7%79 W · 80 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Astros43c426.89$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.561,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Astros29c370.97$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.364,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Mariners76c339$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1965549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89ca…5b45backed Mariners58c310.34$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.347065.7%46 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Astros33c304.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017037.6%64 W · 106 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d1…8ce8backed Astros24c292.88$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.291729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Mariners74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2739160.4%236 W · 155 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd29c…e6c4backed Mariners53c244.44$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbccd…6aeebacked Mariners57c233.33$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.334045%18 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Astros43c233.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.339,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b62…7418backed Astros8c220.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Astros44c220$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.81,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Astros45c213.98$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.541,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Astros47c213.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Mariners59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Astros44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Mariners56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8815644.9%70 W · 86 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Mariners56c193.23$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.022,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Astros26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506357.1%36 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cf6…d0e7backed Mariners60c186.32$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.721233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Mariners64c185$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0580680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Mariners57c176.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6714753.7%79 W · 68 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0667…42e1backed Mariners70c176$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.813145.8%60 W · 71 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Mariners57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4463052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Mariners65c161.5$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9268656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb9a…ba53backed Mariners57c158.2$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.261369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Astros27c153.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5713021.5%28 W · 102 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Mariners50c151.28$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6417155%94 W · 77 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6d…5f97backed Astros27c148.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408146.9%38 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ec…4b7ebacked Astros44c143.18$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6338743.2%167 W · 220 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Astros45c133.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6031356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Astros43c115.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.831,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60f0…1a38backed Mariners51c112$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198b…9973backed Mariners70c108.05$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4212045.8%55 W · 65 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.