NHL · resolved market
Utah vs. Flames: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2ebc1da9d93c851e68b4c1be18aefc725ea0067d2f5e1f96086723cff0df16c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 40c | 1,893$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.8 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Under | 66c | 1,715$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.52 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 60c | 1,700$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.34 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…d867backed Over | 60c | 1,645$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.5 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…5c17backed Under | 1c | 1,476$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 522.03$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.99 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 77c | 458.95$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 338.7$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.76 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 38c | 295.15$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.92 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 61c | 272$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.68 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcf…a152backed Over | 37c | 255.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over | 33c | 240.19$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.93 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 21c | 221.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 36c | 203.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 49c | 173.82$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 13c | 148$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…fcacbacked Under | 55c | 145.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 58c | 128.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 58c | 120.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9101…78ddbacked Under | 64c | 112.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Under | 62c | 111$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 36c | 83.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 45c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 37c | 74.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 41c | 72.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x836d…49afbacked Under | 61c | 65.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…c9d3backed Under | 21c | 64.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 47c | 57.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 31c | 57.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…1fbfbacked Under | 69c | 57.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d1…e058backed Over | 37c | 54.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc202…8488backed Under | 67c | 53.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 71c | 50.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 27c | 48.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee7…0f4abacked Over | 34c | 34.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 60c | 30.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…baf0backed Over | 54c | 28.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 78c | 16.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 54 | 72.2%39 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…bdfbbacked Over | 79c | 13.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Utah vs. Flames: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Flames won
- Utah vs. FlamesFlames won
- Utah vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Utah vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
- Utah vs. Flames: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.