Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd301288ee88c195c151d4081d1aca370295c331625264b3446b548f3cb2621c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 55c | 379.2$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 1,433 | 57.4%822 W · 611 L | +45.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 338.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,868 | 37.7%705 W · 1,163 L | +282.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 255.03$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 2,155 | 59.6%1,285 W · 870 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 216.31$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 50c | 157.22$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 210 | 60.5%127 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 137.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…6691backed No | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 57c | 105.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 46c | 98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 91.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 36c | 88.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 609 | 36.8%224 W · 385 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…033dbacked Yes | 45c | 86.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 79c | 86.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 444 | 58.8%261 W · 183 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 78c | 85.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 78.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 78.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…0020backed Yes | 43c | 75.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 23c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 521 | 43.6%227 W · 294 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 62.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 49c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 53c | 55.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 55c | 55.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 901 | 45.7%412 W · 489 L | -29.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 50c | 54.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…1dbfbacked Yes | 77c | 54.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 47c | 53.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 49c | 52.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,146 | 57.1%654 W · 492 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,275 | 47.6%607 W · 668 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 45c | 39.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 38.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 54c | 37.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 56c | 36.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 42c | 33.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 48c | 31.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 569 | 43.4%247 W · 322 L | -32.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 76c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 677 | 58.5%396 W · 281 L | +50.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 28.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 53c | 28.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 408 | 41.4%169 W · 239 L | +33.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 49c | 27.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 192 | 56.3%108 W · 84 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 43c | 24.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 604 | 61.1%369 W · 235 L | +29.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 57c | 23.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 231 | 55.8%129 W · 102 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 888 | 55.7%495 W · 393 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 60c | 19.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 19.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 18.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 59c | 17.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 81°F or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.