Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pieri vs Harmony Tan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd345708c5c03c1cc522596eb409973da55f8057c027f78c3c911c32f4e80aa60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tanof Pieri, Tan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Pieri | 55c | 799.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tan | 56c | 646.86$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.23 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Pieri | 47c | 398.05$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.95 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Pieri | 47c | 355.29$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Pieri | 63c | 267$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.85 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Pieri | 63c | 242.76$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.47 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Pieri | 72c | 202.15$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.3 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tan | 63c | 192.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Tan | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Tan | 58c | 145.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Tan | 51c | 139$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Pieri | 35c | 120.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Tan | 76c | 118.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Pieri | 30c | 118$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Pieri | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Pieri | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Tan | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pieri | 29c | 94.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Tan | 71c | 85.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Tan | 71c | 84.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Tan | 53c | 79.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Tan | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Tan | 72c | 72.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked Pieri | 78c | 65.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Tan | 52c | 54.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…584dbacked Tan | 69c | 50.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pieri | 36c | 46.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Pieri | 31c | 45.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Pieri | 37c | 42.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…b16bbacked Tan | 70c | 40.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…57f6backed Tan | 70c | 38.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98be…4df8backed Tan | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…2ff9backed Tan | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 54cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…1053backed Pieri | 52c | 20.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.