MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd347f9ea77e0ea5b9fa8670075e2bcfd446439163ed0f951db63851a1efe3303
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 11,668$7,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,083.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 5,700$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.08 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…e7e0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 4,545$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.75 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 1,034$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.9 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 159.35$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 143.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 140.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 140.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 139.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 130.93$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 12c | 130.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 96.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 85.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 69.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa94…b3f4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 24.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.