MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92d3b58a224d29d8b7ce4a01ed5b51c390f12804f3062053bab6d94bdcfe9bc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 3,552$2,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,481 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 2,199$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.62 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 2,162$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.11 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 1,969$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.05 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 1,339$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.65 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 846.67$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.67 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 699.99$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.99 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 467.56$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.97 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 419.07$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.05 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 290.52$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 280.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 220$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 623 | 46.2%288 W · 335 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 144.67$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 136$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 128.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 112.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 89.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 81.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 66.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 56.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 53.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 49.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 44.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 42.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 37.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 34.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 231 | 42.9%99 W · 132 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…2a2ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 24.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.