MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x067c03ffd153ef72c893102c843e226c82a92b4fce5d1551e6bd7f416672a101
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 13,035$6,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,492.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 6,315$3,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,009.99 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 6,079$3,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,628.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…36ddbacked Over | 60c | 4,936$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 61c | 3,554$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.86 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 40c | 3,395$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 42c | 2,138$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.05 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 61c | 1,187$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.38 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 41c | 1,162$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.92 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 62c | 1,120$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.51 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 55c | 1,065$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.48 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 1,024$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.44 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 55c | 910.97$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.4 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 900$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 35c | 640$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 61c | 594.78$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.82 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 39c | 500$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.14 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 433$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 42c | 343$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.49 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 38c | 335.91$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 42c | 319.51$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.18 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Over | 59c | 252.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 239.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.13 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 62c | 234.88$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.91 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 41c | 220$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 54c | 202.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Over | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 167$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 40c | 133$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 46c | 123.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 116.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 41c | 111.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 55c | 100.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 55c | 99.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 52c | 95.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Over | 59c | 93.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 54c | 89.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 28c | 83.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 16c | 74.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 39c | 72.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 41c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 38c | 69.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 42c | 69.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 44c | 65.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked Under | 44c | 65.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7521…c083backed Over | 60c | 61.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…1196backed Over | 61c | 60.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 55c | 53.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 45c | 48.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 58c | 46.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 42c | 45.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c30bbacked Under | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 40c | 32.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…e580backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 46c | 26.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ae…61b5backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d47…9383backed Over | 59c | 25.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Under | 45c | 24.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 51c | 24.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 54c | 20.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 60c | 19.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Over | 61c | 17.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.