MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd34b30d631e9086e9c457e362ef39c1fc087d7deffc373dada06b65ef7a40368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 1,608$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.03 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 1,136$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 1,100$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 1,098$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.2 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 1,060$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.3 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 945.68$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.36 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 292.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.56 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 197.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 192.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 148.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 126.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 107.18$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 102.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 97.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed San Francisco Giants | 28c | 87.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 70.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 63.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked San Francisco Giants | 23c | 62.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 59.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 58.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 54.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 45.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 30.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 22.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 21.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.