Serie A · resolved market
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd34ed36b4ba41cb8e3185f27b016f624058091a518d6f6ecbed0dc3b990b20a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SS Lazioof SSC Napoli, SS Lazio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe02…1204backed SSC Napoli | 37c | 1,749$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.47 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SS Lazio | 67c | 1,540$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.82 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked SS Lazio | 64c | 1,200$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed SS Lazio | 63c | 1,050$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.5 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed SSC Napoli | 34c | 1,007$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.89 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed SSC Napoli | 36c | 961.6$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.18 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked SS Lazio | 65c | 614.58$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked SS Lazio | 63c | 571.24$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.54 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked SSC Napoli | 38c | 298.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.61 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked SSC Napoli | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed SSC Napoli | 29c | 247.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed SSC Napoli | 33c | 164.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed SSC Napoli | 8c | 163$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked SSC Napoli | 11c | 162.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked SSC Napoli | 16c | 148.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed SS Lazio | 63c | 137.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed SS Lazio | 63c | 121.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked SSC Napoli | 36c | 117.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked SSC Napoli | 11c | 94.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 124 | 22.6%28 W · 96 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked SSC Napoli | 37c | 78.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked SS Lazio | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed SS Lazio | 64c | 53.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked SSC Napoli | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed SSC Napoli | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked SSC Napoli | 37c | 46.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed SS Lazio | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed SS Lazio | 64c | 32.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed SS Lazio | 66c | 17.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)this page
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)SS Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.