Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0d2db0e1e374dd5a0af4984a1ea2119b53ac726537b7ad4eb505a739e9a4f2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 2c | 1,900$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 27c | 1,867$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 28c | 1,385$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.94 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 1,263$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.14 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Under | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 73c | 983.58$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.17 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 942.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 24c | 795.33$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.88 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +8.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 72c | 513.46$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 459.07$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.54 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Under | 13c | 379.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +68%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 17c | 274.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 74c | 267.31$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 30c | 221.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 15c | 193.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 29c | 191$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…dd56backed Under | 10c | 183.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 28c | 167.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 30c | 128.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 98.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Over | 70c | 98.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 80c | 47.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 67c | 35.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7eb…a668backed Over | 70c | 29.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaff…1822backed Over | 70c | 25.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.6wins | -0.33per pick | 69cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…2ba1backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…1487backed Over | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…b2cdbacked Over | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)SS Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.