Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4da85a666f80951eac72e38973a5a412c97fcc36da5b6ebddd60645249212df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40d5…79a5backed Over | 12c | 5,688$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 75c | 5,131$3,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.2 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 31c | 3,250$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 2,274$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.22 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 25c | 1,227$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.63 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 68c | 1,077$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…93acbacked Over | 24c | 996.18$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.08 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 819.41$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.99 | 326 | 50.6%165 W · 161 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 78c | 800.25$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.2 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…ee20backed Over | 24c | 616.38$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.93 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 79c | 443.71$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 39c | 316.07$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 76c | 272.25$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…916ebacked Over | 24c | 267.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 258.54$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 58c | 242.07$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 43c | 202.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 23c | 194.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 66c | 181.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 55c | 177.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Under | 68c | 170.2$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 58c | 167.22$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 75c | 166.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 143$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 23c | 125.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 23c | 124.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…2b89backed Under | 77c | 115.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 31c | 105.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…dd8fbacked Under | 77c | 104.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 34c | 97.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc2…5dbbbacked Under | 58c | 94.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…3e5cbacked Under | 71c | 87.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 25c | 84.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 77.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 28c | 60.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 79c | 58.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -9.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 36c | 56.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Under | 55c | 49.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…0e83backed Under | 79c | 45.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 45.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 35c | 42.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…8454backed Under | 74c | 39.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 55c | 38.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2b…1510backed Under | 55c | 30.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 35c | 28.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 76c | 27.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)SS Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.