MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd355d267d116d064dd40f0df465827a4d395131f9049d70d3696e413ad6efbe4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 41c | 2,091$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.63 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 53c | 1,100$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.09 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 800.56$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 747.36$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 61c | 657.7$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.3 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 33c | 562.34$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.95 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 66c | 392.8$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 382.15$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.09 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 63c | 350.71$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 320$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 223.97$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.27 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…9d91backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 204 | 43.1%88 W · 116 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 65c | 184.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 157.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 38c | 156$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Over | 40c | 125.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 60c | 97.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 35c | 88.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 58c | 69.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 37c | 53.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 38c | 50.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 58c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 57c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 58c | 25.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 48c | 23.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 64c | 17.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego PadresChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-5.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.