MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4df5bb323b6a4b5b7f7ee5ee17a85198e04bfaf15decc13a357fc3b26c2ab170
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 2,799$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 2,086$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 996.85$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.31 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 760$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.23 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 701.22$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 678.96$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.96 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 313.9$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 299.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.95 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 295$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 239.73$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.22 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 183.56$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 169.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 167$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 162.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 138.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 92.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…db73backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 81.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 60.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 50.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27f…cdf5backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 43.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 40.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 33.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 32.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 32.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 30.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 23.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 23.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego PadresChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-5.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.