MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd38bf634b4ac6a703e229fdee2f2f0354b796a6c190f44711aa376d2e885dc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 53c | 9,000$4,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,230 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 8,322$3,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,911.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 47c | 500.48$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.27 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 220.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.76 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 56c | 214.51$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 183.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…c3b9backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 55c | 136.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 50c | 62.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 27c | 53.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…821abacked Under | 55c | 45.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…6124backed Under | 60c | 42.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…6c9fbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 35.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 45c | 35.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 45c | 31.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 29.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 49c | 21.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3636backed Under | 55c | 20.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 63c | 19.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego PadresChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-5.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.