Asian League · resolved market
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a30e13b42395490b177866d20555ece4b9418e37508a382cc120de23b567d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,354 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 25c | 3,835$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.85 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 69c | 2,879$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.59 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 2,588$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.38 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 18c | 1,800$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,468$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.27 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 1,254$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.06 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 245 | 23.3%57 W · 188 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,090$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.73 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 9c | 1,046$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Yes | 30c | 1,040$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 724.35$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.17 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 31c | 680.2$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.21 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 71c | 499.99$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…d94abacked Yes | 25c | 430.72$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 74c | 374.1$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 22c | 317.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 30c | 299.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 31c | 270.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…132abacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 9c | 161.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 28c | 147.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Yes | 32c | 134.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 129.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 427 | 25.8%110 W · 317 L | -34.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe142…7dc5backed Yes | 33c | 127.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 10c | 126.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Yes | 31c | 113.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…11d5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Yes | 15c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 68c | 93.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 1,126 | 46.3%521 W · 605 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 23c | 90.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 89.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 18c | 82.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232b…8bd9backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 22c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 488 | 67.8%331 W · 157 L | +68.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 30c | 68.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 71c | 63.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…4d9dbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…444abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97b1…1f26backed Yes | 20c | 55.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…bd37backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…4761backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e10…c6cdbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…1627backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 59 | 76.3%45 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 24c | 47.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed No | 71c | 41.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf49f…2661backed Yes | 31c | 34.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 67c | 34.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…0f34backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 565 | 45.5%257 W · 308 L | -24.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 27.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…955bbacked No | 77c | 22.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 22.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4e…44b3backed No | 72c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.