MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a8286ce1ed1820bf032ac15dea236b04ee883147b207bc039c30d4eadbee9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 9,752$4,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,338.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 8,475$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,474.58 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 1,386$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.09 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23c…07cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 1,378$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 760.65$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.09 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 400$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.4 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 359.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.16 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 135$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 115.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 112.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 102.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 86.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 64.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 24c | 49.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 78c | 44.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 32.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 32.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 30.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 18.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.