TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$394,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$396,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,124 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x547f…2937backed Under72c255,237$182,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,646.9613856.5%78 W · 60 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over28c200,000$57,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,00085645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Under45c97,668$43,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,717.1755053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over55c48,824$26,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,850.254,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over55c25,500$14,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,0251,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over55c25,320$13,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,922.952,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over32c24,468$7,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,829.5310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over46c18,356$8,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,359.1911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Over23c10,690$2,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,458.782636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over23c8,965$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under46c6,522$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,521.8821748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over45c5,096$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,310.364,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Under57c4,789$2,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.8548451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0467…fb2ebacked Under45c3,800$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0906747.8%32 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over46c2,815$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.598,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under45c2,250$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.555653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe459…737dbacked Under51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98010747.7%51 W · 56 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecc…7850backed Under47c1,943$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.625152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under47c1,441$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.0692054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under45c1,235$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.323,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d86…537abacked Under46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5401181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+53.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over54c975$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.51,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Over55c890.76$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.922,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Under46c652.17$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.1766050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over55c645$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.751,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over27c487.72$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.999,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over53c474.59$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.668,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Over53c429.97$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.1940446.5%188 W · 216 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over54c387.99$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.422,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over31c365.09$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.65,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under46c346.99$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.371,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Over31c322.06$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.864,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16258652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over45c243.89$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.411,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00c4…e285backed Over55c242.42$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.336564.6%42 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Over23c211.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2354715.9%87 W · 460 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Under48c208.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4438353.8%206 W · 177 L+16.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x966f…5cdcbacked Under48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.331566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+34.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Over53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10632850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Over54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1089650%48 W · 48 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over55c185$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.751,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under45c180.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.396,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc74c…2413backed Over55c179.36$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.659455.3%52 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fcd…724dbacked Over54c170$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.110249%50 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Over55c158.41$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1341346.7%193 W · 220 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce5c…a409backed Over27c152.2$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Over53c140.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6828943.3%125 W · 164 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over17c133.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.111,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Under48c127.3$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.571,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under45c124.59$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.115,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Over55c115$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2542355.6%235 W · 188 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over55c109.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6034255.3%189 W · 153 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over55c109$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.951,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc39a…69b1backed Under74c106.32$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.821656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e50…4b22backed Under46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547755.8%43 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5473849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5454146.8%253 W · 288 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8766…4171backed Over28c97.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3714351.7%74 W · 69 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x266c…6963backed Over55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505360.4%32 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Over28c90.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1572655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over38c74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.966,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under46c71.76$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.753,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Over32c67.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6329549.8%147 W · 148 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over46c59.47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.181,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d69…ab3abacked Over53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014450.7%73 W · 71 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc28…ede2backed Over55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under45c47.24$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.752,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked Over54c47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3828147.7%134 W · 147 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9e…53c2backed Over55c44.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.693063.3%19 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick71cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…90a8backed Under67c44.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7811138.7%43 W · 68 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5587…6d07backed Under48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6751656.6%292 W · 224 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.810253.9%55 W · 47 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f11…749dbacked Under46c39.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.122634.6%9 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-30%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c8c…01c9backed Over55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205141.2%21 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9565…ec9abacked Under62c35.58$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4215349%75 W · 78 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Under46c32.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6173243.4%318 W · 414 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Over32c31.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.250954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0df0…1376backed Under48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.257644.7%34 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf110…9095backed Over46c30.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.861752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbe3…6872backed Under71c23.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.983847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Under46c22.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.252852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under46c22.11$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.946,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x004c…ab0cbacked Over54c20.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3624448.8%119 W · 125 L-14.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b90…43ffbacked Over52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1551…b2dbbacked Under53c19.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.