MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5416b4b39b4b6fbfbd961b0c7c5eeda3f690b8d98caa968c9b3da3d1d4bd7547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 65c | 1,550$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.5 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 994.11$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.01 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 927.8$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 875.5$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 619.57$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 56c | 579.57$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.01 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 57c | 523.07$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.92 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Under | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…68f7backed Under | 60c | 510.54$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.08 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 39c | 472.85$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.41 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 57c | 397$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.71 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 39c | 352.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.57 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 328.33$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 42c | 320$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 17c | 252.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…558bbacked Over | 7c | 232.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 26c | 226.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 194.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 58c | 172.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 42c | 145.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 75c | 139$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 30c | 129.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 97.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 67c | 82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 64.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Over | 43c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 43c | 52.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 52.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…344abacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 63c | 42.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 36c | 33.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 66c | 30.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c25…e36dbacked Over | 44c | 23.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 22.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 57c | 21.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc28…ede2backed Under | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed Under | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.