MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeea72875597e00ff54cda22265750e77f2413ba095bbfae13fcd341c646dac01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 24c | 4,879$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.51 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 4,000$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.62 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 3,532$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.12 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 2,044$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 1,853$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…1b34backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 1,158$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.45 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 1,024$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.64 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 751$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.54 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 475.24$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.84 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef6…01a9backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 443.46$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 359.36$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 330.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 265$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 251.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 231.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 221.03$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 133.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…0dbbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd35b…4a53backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 120.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 115$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 108.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…c736backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 99.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 82.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 78c | 64.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4011…4a39backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 57.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 56.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 53.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 50.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 78c | 49.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 39.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 36.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 36.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 36.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 33.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 33.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 33.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 33.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 32.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 24.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…43ffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 16.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.