Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a83f628542c6f8073aeee992d5e25f6f19750b2302db9b1a8fd8959df05bb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 2c | 838.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 2c | 798.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…6120backed Yes | 13c | 699.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 15c | 459.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 44c | 451.07$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.39 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 426.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 422.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.46 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 32c | 311.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 70c | 302.64$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.23 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 302.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 287$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 215$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 57c | 202.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaa…ce40backed Yes | 47c | 197.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 59c | 192.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 48c | 155.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…df5ebacked Yes | 7c | 153.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 52c | 149.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 144.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 137.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 125.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 67c | 112.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 34c | 109$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 29c | 103.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 32c | 101.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 98.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 91.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 37c | 86.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 28c | 76.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 74.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 22c | 74.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed Yes | 29c | 73.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 28c | 66.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 33c | 63.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 63.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b6…57fdbacked Yes | 35c | 63.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 62.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 30c | 61.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 71c | 57.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 74c | 57.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x098a…8fc5backed Yes | 37c | 54.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 52.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5991…6340backed Yes | 54c | 49.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 44c | 47.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d6…25ffbacked No | 72c | 44.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 61c | 40.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 38.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 73c | 36.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 31c | 35.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 33c | 31.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 52c | 30.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 70c | 27.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 69c | 22.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 72c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 19.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed No | 73c | 19.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1299…f6b1backed No | 73c | 17.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…df58backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.