TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,948 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x544c…41a4backed No1c4,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked No71c602.6$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.857950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No9c571.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9959742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No61c550.31$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.7591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c358.92$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.0917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes62c343.53$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.723673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes48c300$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.3933058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes31c288$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.476,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No53c265$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4260851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff3…c7edbacked No77c260.44$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed No72c243.73$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8629137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…6a43backed Yes56c215.72$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.725538.2%21 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes30c154.39$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9323231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed Yes39c151.35$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4924262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9466…4d38backed Yes26c151.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.062347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No43c150.95$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.197,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf5a5…e304backed Yes64c150$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.423551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked No68c149.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.696939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes30c143.54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.153,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Yes38c130.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2210426%27 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No38c120.4$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes29c112.85$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.672,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes47c106.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.150648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x387c…8622backed Yes47c103.76$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.052642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5440438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6641046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c87.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.228,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df6…8510backed Yes32c86.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.79875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+111.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No24c83.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3832818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc769…0925backed Yes36c82.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.753938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes25c81.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0825029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes48c78.79$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2216355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Yes43c78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.163452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No65c76.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9941460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.553,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…d343backed No55c74.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed No78c74.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.117536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2895…2574backed Yes43c73$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.363964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+34.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes51c71.87$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.872657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No61c70.53$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.913,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed Yes24c70$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5312632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No39c65.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.482,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes30c62.15$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5129459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes52c60.7$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.261,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.212932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.858060%48 W · 32 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes41c59.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No30c59.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7252322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes30c52.89$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8456721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No67c51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3754143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes25c50.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8434617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea1c…6a96backed Yes46c50.17$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.17933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9831442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4070133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0401…69debacked Yes54c48.38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.382334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…18d8backed Yes36c47.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No68c44.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9970770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5580…8029backed Yes46c43.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.935261.5%32 W · 20 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No49c40.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.781,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes50c39.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.124341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes31c39.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.247037.1%26 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdf4…df5ebacked Yes38c38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.56728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes70c37.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.373,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3069…e34bbacked Yes46c34.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No75c33.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f44…c470backed Yes35c32.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.287546.7%35 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db6…4894backed Yes48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.254339.5%17 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes42c31.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1620144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes52c29.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0981029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes37c27.21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.23040%12 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No74c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes47c24.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.851,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No67c24.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1718761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71b5…d067backed Yes54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.28246.3%38 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x139b…a1a5backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes75c19.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8925335.2%89 W · 164 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No60c18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.851,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No71c17.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.585974.6%44 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No58c17.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.221,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed No67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0511044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.